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How many copies did Mr. Sun's Hatbox sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–21k
$53k–$142k after Steam's cut $96k–$219k before the cut
from 517 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Mr. Sun's Hatbox out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mr. Sun's Hatbox's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.2M–21.7M
best case 813.7M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Mr. Sun's Hatbox

The middle of these games

≈ 11.2M–21.7M copies

≈ $83.7M–$216.5M after Steam's cut

from ~261k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 620.0M–1007.5M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Shooter (8 of 8) and FPS (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Shooter + FPS. The breakout hits carry PvP + e-sports; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2000 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 75.3M–122.4M
5.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.5M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Counter-Strike
2000
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$45.4M–$122.0M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.7M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionFPS
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.2M–$178.0M after Steam's cut $120.4M–$273.9M before the cut
$39.99
243k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryRealistic
Counter-Strike: Source
2004
Est. copies
≈ 12.2M–19.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$33.5M–$90.1M after Steam's cut $60.9M–$138.7M before the cut
$9.99
193k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ShooterFPS
Arma 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.6M–30.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$153.8M–$413.4M after Steam's cut $279.6M–$636.0M before the cut
$29.99
295k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryAction
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 620.0M–1007.5M
38x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.8M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
Ready or Not
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8.5M–13.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$117.4M–$315.6M after Steam's cut $213.4M–$485.5M before the cut
$49.99
344k reviews
Mostly Positive
TacticalRealistic

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