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How many copies did Shadow Arena sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 134k–218k
from 5k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Shadow Arena out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Arena's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 31k–76k
best case 9.8M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)
Games like Shadow Arena

The middle of these games

≈ 31k–76k copies

≈ $175k–$506k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

6 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 545 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 263 to 33k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Battle Royale (5 of 8) and Fighting (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts. The breakout hits carry Martial Arts + Mature + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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