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How many copies did Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 11k–18k
$86k–$232k after Steam's cut $157k–$357k before the cut
from 452 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.4M
best case 4.6M (Kenshi)
Games like Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown

The middle of these games

≈ 2.2M–3.4M copies

≈ $22.3M–$47.7M after Steam's cut

from ~71k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Kenshi at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 19k to 44k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Base-Building (7 of 8) and Simulation (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Sandbox, priced around $30.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 926k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.6M–$20.5M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.6M before the cut
$29.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.6M after Steam's cut $22.7M–$51.6M before the cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Kenshi
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut $52.9M–$120.3M before the cut
$29.99
116k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldSandbox
Manor Lords
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.8M–$66.6M after Steam's cut $45.0M–$102.4M before the cut
$39.99
91k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Northgard: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.1M–$54.0M after Steam's cut $36.5M–$83.1M before the cut
$34.99
69k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Prison Architect
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.7M–$79.8M after Steam's cut $54.0M–$122.7M before the cut
$29.99
74k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
They Are Billions
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.8M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.5M before the cut
$29.99
51k reviews
Very Positive
Base-BuildingColony Sim
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.8M–$31.8M after Steam's cut $21.5M–$49.0M before the cut
$24.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementDifficult

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