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How many copies did F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 179k–291k
$787k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before the cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch out and predicted the genre from its 6 similar games. Every figure here, including F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.1M–6.6M
best case 25.3M (Hollow Knight)
Games like F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch

The middle of these games

≈ 4.1M–6.6M copies

≈ $39.9M–$70.5M after Steam's cut

from ~146k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 6 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Platformer (3 of 6), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.2M–31.3M copies, ≈ $79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Platformer (3 of 6) and Souls-like (3 of 6).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Metroidvania + 2D; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.4M–$149.0M after Steam's cut $100.7M–$229.2M before the cut
$39.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.2M–31.3M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut $144.2M–$328.1M before the cut
$14.99
559k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.5M–$65.8M after Steam's cut $44.5M–$101.2M before the cut
$19.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.2M–$102.8M after Steam's cut $69.5M–$158.2M before the cut
$24.99
183k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.6M–$58.2M after Steam's cut $39.4M–$89.5M before the cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Katana ZERO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.2M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.3M before the cut
$14.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.