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How big is Summerland?

Estimated owners
≈ 44k–71k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Summerland out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Summerland's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.5M–7.9M
best case 27.4M (Fallout 4)
Games like Summerland

The middle of these games

≈ 5.5M–7.9M copies

≈ $41.9M–$130.3M after Steam's cut

from ~130k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Open World (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 20.9M–34.0M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (3 of 8) and Dark Fantasy (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Open World + Singleplayer + Post-apocalyptic; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.4M–10.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$70.7M–$190.0M after Steam's cut $128.5M–$292.3M before the cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$93.9M before the cut
$19.99
99k reviews
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AdventureAtmospheric
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.1M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.9M before the cut
$39.99
155k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
GRIS
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before the cut
$14.99
96k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulAtmospheric
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$72.9M–$196.0M after Steam's cut $132.6M–$301.6M before the cut
$59.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.6M–25.4M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$172.0M–$462.5M after Steam's cut $312.8M–$711.6M before the cut
$39.99
376k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Life is Strange - Episode 1
2015
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–13.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
176k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.