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How many copies did Punch the Potus sell?

Too new to estimate
Games in its genre land ≈ 6k–893k That is what its genre does, not a prediction for this game.
No reviews yet, so there is nothing to estimate from. That is not the same as selling nothing.
Does this actually work?

We left Punch the Potus out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Punch the Potus's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–893k
best case 6.7M (Papers, Please)
Games like Punch the Potus

The middle of these games

≈ 6k–893k copies

≈ $33k–$10.8M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

4 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Papers, Please at ≈ 5.1M–8.3M copies, ≈ $13.9M–$37.5M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
The games that made it here had under 2k reviews in their first month.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Political (6 of 8) and Satire (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Political + Simulation, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Papers, Please
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
35x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.9M–$37.5M after Steam's cut $25.4M–$57.7M before the cut
$9.99
80k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndiePolitical
Sifu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 708k–1.2M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$20.9M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.2M before the cut
$39.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMartial Arts
Social Justice Warriors
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before the cut
$7.99
128 reviews
Mixed
SatireEducation
Kandidatos
2020
Est. copies
≈ 108k–176k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$29k–$79k after Steam's cut $53k–$122k before the cut
$0.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
FightingPolitical
Afterbern Democralypse
2019
Est. copies
≈ 461–749
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16 reviews
Mixed
ActionViolent
Yakuza Kiwami (Legacy)
2019
Est. copies
≈ 672k–1.1M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich
Deadly Desire
2023
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$61–$164 after Steam's cut $111–$253 before the cut
$2.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
ConspiracyShooter
Political Animals
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$136k before the cut
$14.99
192 reviews
Mixed
Political SimSimulation

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