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How many copies did DEFCON sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 274k–445k
$902k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left DEFCON out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DEFCON's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–6.4M
best case 87.5M (Left 4 Dead 2)
Games like DEFCON

The middle of these games

≈ 1.2M–6.4M copies

≈ $11.2M–$41.6M after Steam's cut

from ~66k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Shooter (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 66.7M–108.4M copies, ≈ $183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Shooter (4 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2008 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

GTFO
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.2M–$48.9M after Steam's cut $33.0M–$75.2M before the cut
$39.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Left 4 Dead
2008
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$11.8M–$31.7M after Steam's cut $21.5M–$48.8M before the cut
$9.99
68k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 66.7M–108.4M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut $333.1M–$757.9M before the cut
$9.99
1.1M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Door Kickers: Action Squad
2018
Est. copies
≈ 322k–523k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.1M before the cut
$13.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
2D PlatformerPixel Graphics
Age of Empires II (Retired)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$35.7M–$96.0M after Steam's cut $64.9M–$147.8M before the cut
$19.99
103k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.7M–$15.3M after Steam's cut $10.3M–$23.5M before the cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementDiplomacy
Plague Inc: Evolved
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.2M–$30.2M after Steam's cut $20.4M–$46.5M before the cut
$14.99
66k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War
2018
Est. copies
≈ 565k–919k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before the cut
$39.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWarhammer 40K

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.