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How many copies did Frostpunk 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 667k–1.1M
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.2M before the cut
from 27k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Frostpunk 2 out and predicted the genre from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Frostpunk 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–4.4M
best case 7.6M (Factorio)
Games like Frostpunk 2

The middle of these games

≈ 1.1M–4.4M copies

≈ $13.0M–$58.5M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.8M–9.4M copies, ≈ $55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 16k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Base-Building (3 of 3) and City Builder (2 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dwarf Fortress
2022
Est. copies
≈ 780k–1.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.3M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.6M before the cut
$29.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut $101.5M–$231.0M before the cut
$35.00
234k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 926k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.6M–$20.5M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.6M before the cut
$29.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.