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How many copies did Factorio sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
$55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut $101.5M–$231.0M before the cut
from 234k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Factorio out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Factorio's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.5M–8.0M
best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)
Games like Factorio

The middle of these games

≈ 5.5M–8.0M copies

≈ $60.7M–$124.7M after Steam's cut

from ~140k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.4M–$315.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Base-Building (4 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $40.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.4M–$315.8M after Steam's cut $213.5M–$485.8M before the cut
$29.99
292k reviews
Very Positive
Satisfactory
2024
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.2M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$76.0M–$204.4M after Steam's cut $138.2M–$314.4M before the cut
$39.99
279k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingAutomation
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.4M–$76.4M after Steam's cut $51.7M–$117.5M before the cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Europa Universalis IV
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$119.2M–$320.5M after Steam's cut $216.8M–$493.1M before the cut
$49.99
137k reviews
Very Positive
Grand StrategyStrategy
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.2M–8.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$50.4M–$135.5M after Steam's cut $91.6M–$208.4M before the cut
$34.99
182k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Resident Evil 4
2023
Est. copies
≈ 6.8M–11.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$74.9M–$201.3M after Steam's cut $136.1M–$309.7M before the cut
$39.99
275k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorAction
Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.4M–$92.4M after Steam's cut $62.5M–$142.2M before the cut
$29.99
137k reviews
Very Positive
Age of Empires II (Retired)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$35.7M–$96.0M after Steam's cut $64.9M–$147.8M before the cut
$19.99
103k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.