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How many copies did Fading Afternoon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–41k
$140k–$376k after Steam's cut $254k–$579k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Fading Afternoon out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fading Afternoon's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 280k–1.1M
best case 6.6M (Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition)
Games like Fading Afternoon

The middle of these games

≈ 280k–1.1M copies

≈ $732k–$3.1M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Sandbox (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition at ≈ 5.0M–8.1M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Sandbox (4 of 8) and Open World (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Automobile Sim. The breakout hits carry Automobile Sim + Crime + Third Person; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2025, and 1 of your 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
27x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
The friends of Ringo Ishikawa
2018
Est. copies
≈ 96k–156k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$397k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $721k–$1.6M before the cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
ActionPixel Graphics
IdleOn - The Incremental MMO
2025
Est. copies
≈ 736k–1.2M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
IdlerPixel Graphics
Kingdom Eighties
2023
Est. copies
≈ 82k–133k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$271k–$728k after Steam's cut $492k–$1.1M before the cut
$11.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
ExplorationSide Scroller
Craft The World
2014
Est. copies
≈ 955k–1.6M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.6M before the cut
$18.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
King Arthur's Gold
2013
Est. copies
≈ 330k–537k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Multiplayer2D
Pixel Piracy
2014
Est. copies
≈ 412k–669k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before the cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Mixed
Action RoguelikeSandbox
Your Only Move Is HUSTLE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
6.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before the cut
$4.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2D FighterTurn-Based Strategy

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