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How many copies did Rogue Waters sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 32k–51k
$261k–$701k after Steam's cut $474k–$1.1M before the cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Rogue Waters out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rogue Waters's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 389k–1.1M
best case 1.4M (Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition)
Games like Rogue Waters

The middle of these games

≈ 389k–1.1M copies

≈ $4.0M–$7.3M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Fantasy (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies, ≈ $6.0M–$16.1M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Fantasy (4 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Third Person, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.1M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.8M before the cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerAction RPG
Wildermyth
2021
Est. copies
≈ 452k–735k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.6M–$12.9M before the cut
$24.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Party-Based RPGChoices Matter
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 338k–550k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before the cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer
觅长生
2023
Est. copies
≈ 792k–1.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before the cut
$14.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Backpack Hero
2023
Est. copies
≈ 211k–342k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before the cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Replay ValueTurn-Based
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 986k–1.6M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.1M–$21.9M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.6M before the cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
King Arthur: Knight's Tale
2022
Est. copies
≈ 186k–303k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.5M before the cut
$44.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Across the Obelisk
2022
Est. copies
≈ 325k–527k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before the cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy

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