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How many copies did I'm on Observation Duty 4 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 21k–34k
$29k–$78k after Steam's cut $53k–$120k before the cut
from 850 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left I'm on Observation Duty 4 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I'm on Observation Duty 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.0M–4.7M
best case 4.1M (Buckshot Roulette)
Games like I'm on Observation Duty 4

The middle of these games

≈ 2.0M–4.7M copies

≈ $9.0M–$19.2M after Steam's cut

from ~75k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Buckshot Roulette at ≈ 3.1M–5.0M copies, ≈ $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 7k to 24k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Horror (4 of 8) and Psychological (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Dark + Gambling, priced around $3.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2024, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
$4.99
104k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
SILENT HILL 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.7M before the cut
$69.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
DREDGE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.0M after Steam's cut $18.9M–$43.0M before the cut
$26.99
56k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationFishing
Cry of Fear
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorFree to Play
Spec Ops: The Line
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
56k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichThird-Person Shooter
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$16.9M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$26.0M before the cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
Buckshot Roulette
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.5M before the cut
$2.99
125k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerDark
Deceit
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
92k reviews
Mostly Positive
PvPMultiplayer

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