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How many copies did Cavalry Girls sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 49k–80k
$162k–$436k after Steam's cut $295k–$670k before the cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Cavalry Girls out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cavalry Girls's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–7k
best case 12k (Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel)
Games like Cavalry Girls

The middle of these games

≈ 3k–7k copies

≈ $12k–$31k after Steam's cut

from ~149 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel at ≈ 9k–15k copies, ≈ $37k–$100k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 41 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 17 to 162.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Bullet Hell (5 of 8) and Shoot 'Em Up (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure + Shoot 'Em Up, priced around $15.
The era
4 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this niche is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$37k–$100k after Steam's cut $67k–$153k before the cut
$14.99
362 reviews
Very Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureShoot 'Em Up
REDNEG ALLSTARS SWING-BY EDITION
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before the cut
$10.99
91 reviews
Very Positive
ActionShooter
Like Dreamer
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before the cut
$13.99
174 reviews
Very Positive
ActionShooter
Project Beril / 贝丽尔养成计划
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$24k before the cut
$9.99
85 reviews
Very Positive
IndieShoot 'Em Up
WITCH-BOT MEGLILO
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$8k–$23k after Steam's cut $15k–$35k before the cut
$5.99
123 reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Replik Survivors
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before the cut
$4.99
80 reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RoguelikeAnime
HSS:Reload
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5k–9k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before the cut
$8.99
211 reviews
Mostly Positive
Rogue-liteSingleplayer
Gunner-chan!
2025
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before the cut
$9.99
246 reviews
Very Positive
ActionAction Roguelike

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