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How many copies did Spear Song sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$20k–$52k after Steam's cut $36k–$81k before the cut
from 191 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Spear Song out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Spear Song's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–9.8M
best case 20.6M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)
Games like Spear Song

The middle of these games

≈ 2.9M–9.8M copies

≈ $35.5M–$185.9M after Steam's cut

from ~63k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.7M–25.6M copies, ≈ $259.5M–$697.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Turn-Based Strategy (8 of 8) and Historical (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.6M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$109.7M–$295.1M after Steam's cut $199.5M–$454.0M before the cut
$29.99
211k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
RISK: Global Domination
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
42k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.7M–25.6M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$259.5M–$697.7M after Steam's cut $471.8M–$1073.4M before the cut
$59.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.0M after Steam's cut $27.7M–$63.1M before the cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
Total War: ATTILA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$94.0M before the cut
$44.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition
2006
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.8M–$42.5M after Steam's cut $28.7M–$65.3M before the cut
$24.99
36k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyMedieval
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$91.8M–$246.8M after Steam's cut $166.9M–$379.7M before the cut
$59.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: SHOGUN 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–6.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$35.2M–$94.8M after Steam's cut $64.1M–$145.8M before the cut
$29.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical

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