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How many copies did Assassin's Creed Valhalla sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
$18.2M–$49.0M after Steam's cut $33.2M–$75.5M before the cut
from 45k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Assassin's Creed Valhalla out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Assassin's Creed Valhalla's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 34.2M–90.6M
best case 132.9M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)
Games like Assassin's Creed Valhalla

The middle of these games

≈ 34.2M–90.6M copies

≈ $353.0M–$802.6M after Steam's cut

from ~958k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.3M–164.6M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (7 of 8) and Crafting (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut $725.5M–$1650.4M before the cut
$59.99
975k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.2M–70.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut
$49.99
885k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.7M–43.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut $200.2M–$455.4M before the cut
$14.99
776k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 97.9M–159.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$269.0M–$723.1M after Steam's cut $489.0M–$1112.5M before the cut
$9.99
1.5M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
ELDEN RING
2022
Est. copies
≈ 28.6M–46.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$471.3M–$1267.1M after Steam's cut $856.9M–$1949.4M before the cut
$59.99
1.2M reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeOpen World
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.4M–96.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$326.7M–$878.4M after Steam's cut $594.0M–$1351.4M before the cut
$19.99
940k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 101.3M–164.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.1M reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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