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How many copies did The Guilt and the Shadow sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $13k–$28k before the cut
from 57 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Guilt and the Shadow out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Guilt and the Shadow's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–6.8M
best case 56.7M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition)
Games like The Guilt and the Shadow

The middle of these games

≈ 2.7M–6.8M copies

≈ $40.9M–$78.5M after Steam's cut

from ~82k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition at ≈ 43.2M–70.2M copies, ≈ $593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Story Rich (5 of 8) and Souls-like (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Open World + Mature + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.4M–10.4M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$70.7M–$190.0M after Steam's cut $128.5M–$292.3M before the cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Lies of P
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$33.4M–$89.7M after Steam's cut $60.7M–$138.1M before the cut
$59.99
82k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeAction
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.2M–70.2M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut
$49.99
885k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.6M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.1M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.9M before the cut
$39.99
155k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.7M–$58.3M after Steam's cut $39.5M–$89.8M before the cut
$29.99
76k reviews
Very Positive
AtmosphericPsychological
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.2M–$46.2M after Steam's cut $31.3M–$71.2M before the cut
$49.99
50k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAction
A Plague Tale: Innocence
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$22.6M–$60.8M after Steam's cut $41.1M–$93.6M before the cut
$39.99
71k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAdventure
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.4M–$84.3M after Steam's cut $57.0M–$129.7M before the cut
$19.99
90k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy

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