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How many copies did Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
$21.7M–$58.3M after Steam's cut $39.5M–$89.8M before the cut
from 76k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–4.7M
best case 4.7M (Soundpad)
Games like Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice

The middle of these games

≈ 1.8M–4.7M copies

≈ $7.7M–$38.7M after Steam's cut

from ~56k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Soundpad at ≈ 3.6M–5.8M copies, ≈ $4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 4k to 24k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Psychological (5 of 8) and Story Rich (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Utilities + Audio Production, priced around $5.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2024, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.3M before the cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
$4.99
104k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
The Stanley Parable
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before the cut
$14.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyNarration
Sally Face - Episode One
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$959k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$4.0M before the cut
$2.99
28k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DREDGE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.0M after Steam's cut $18.9M–$43.0M before the cut
$26.99
56k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationFishing
Spec Ops: The Line
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
56k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichThird-Person Shooter
SILENT HILL 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.7M before the cut
$69.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
Mouthwashing
2024
Est. copies
≈ 952k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.1M before the cut
$12.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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