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How many copies did The Butterfly Collector sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 24k–39k
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $12k–$27k before the cut
from 956 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Butterfly Collector out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Butterfly Collector's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 16k–109k
best case 270k (Homicipher)
Games like The Butterfly Collector

The middle of these games

≈ 16k–109k copies

≈ $76k–$503k after Steam's cut

from ~927 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

4 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Homicipher at ≈ 206k–334k copies, ≈ $791k–$2.1M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 295 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 149 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Visual Novel (7 of 8) and Word Game (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Otome, priced around $14.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

当火车鸣笛三秒
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before the cut
$9.99
485 reviews
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Interactive FictionWord Game
Paper Bride 2 Zangling Village
2022
Est. copies
≈ 28k–46k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$78k–$210k after Steam's cut $142k–$323k before the cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
恋爱绮谭 不存在的真相
2022
Est. copies
≈ 55k–89k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$211k–$567k after Steam's cut $384k–$873k before the cut
$13.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Interactive FictionWord Game
Rail of Möbius
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$44k–$117k after Steam's cut $79k–$180k before the cut
$12.99
492 reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelTime Travel
Our End of the World
2017
Est. copies
≈ 167k–271k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$458k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $833k–$1.9M before the cut
$9.99
5k reviews
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Sexual ContentDating Sim
Homicipher
2024
Est. copies
≈ 206k–334k
8.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$791k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before the cut
$13.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorOtome
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes
2023
Est. copies
≈ 18k–28k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$48k–$130k after Steam's cut $88k–$199k before the cut
$9.99
707 reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
Mandemon
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$8k–$20k after Steam's cut $14k–$31k before the cut
$2.99
373 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureVisual Novel

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