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How big is VRChat?

Estimated owners
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
from 268k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left VRChat out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including VRChat's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–13.3M
best case 64.7M (War Thunder)
Games like VRChat

The middle of these games

≈ 4.3M–13.3M copies

≈ $26.4M–$98.5M after Steam's cut

from ~142k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.3M–80.1M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Simulation (5 of 8) and Racing (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
$4.99
104k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
780k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
Forza Horizon 4
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.5M–18.7M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.0M–$255.4M after Steam's cut $172.7M–$393.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
House Flipper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.3M–$62.6M after Steam's cut $42.3M–$96.3M before the cut
$24.99
111k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationDesign & Illustration
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.7M–15.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut $97.1M–$220.9M before the cut
$19.99
173k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
CarX Drift Racing Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.5M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.3M before the cut
$16.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingPhysics

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.