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How many copies did MADNESS: Project Nexus sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 435k–706k
$3.0M–$8.0M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.4M before the cut
from 18k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left MADNESS: Project Nexus out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MADNESS: Project Nexus's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.5M–10.7M
best case 31.7M (Dying Light)
Games like MADNESS: Project Nexus

The middle of these games

≈ 6.5M–10.7M copies

≈ $74.3M–$305.8M after Steam's cut

from ~203k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Dying Light at ≈ 24.1M–39.2M copies, ≈ $165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 47k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 33k to 128k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Third Person (5 of 8) and Open World (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Survival Horror, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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