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wishvane

How many copies did Natural Selection 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 845k–1.4M
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before the cut
from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Natural Selection 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Natural Selection 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32.2M–105.2M
best case 813.7M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Natural Selection 2

The middle of these games

≈ 32.2M–105.2M copies

≈ $135.6M–$218.5M after Steam's cut

from ~727k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 620.0M–1007.5M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (4 of 8) and Shooter (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 620.0M–1007.5M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.8M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
780k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.4M–47.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.8M–$217.4M after Steam's cut $147.0M–$334.4M before the cut
$9.99
466k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.5M–$138.4M after Steam's cut $93.6M–$213.0M before the cut
$19.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 75.3M–122.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.5M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.