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How many copies did Outbreak sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$51k before the cut
from 130 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Outbreak out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Outbreak's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–8.1M
best case 8.9M (Resident Evil 4)
Games like Outbreak

The middle of these games

≈ 5.6M–8.1M copies

≈ $59.3M–$100.6M after Steam's cut

from ~125k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

3 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Resident Evil 4 at ≈ 6.8M–11.1M copies, ≈ $74.9M–$201.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
The games that made it here had under 68k reviews in their first month.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Horror (6 of 8) and Survival Horror (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $40.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Resident Evil 4
2023
Est. copies
≈ 6.8M–11.1M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$74.9M–$201.3M after Steam's cut $136.1M–$309.7M before the cut
$39.99
275k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorAction
CYSMA
2020
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$96–$257 after Steam's cut $175–$396 before the cut
$6.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
Walking SimulatorThird-Person Shooter
Death Below
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before the cut
$9.99
82 reviews
Mixed
ActionZombies
Resident Evil 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.2M–$92.0M after Steam's cut $62.2M–$141.5M before the cut
$39.99
125k reviews
Very Positive
ActionZombies
Resident Evil 4 (2005)
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.7M before the cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
Inventory ManagementSurvival Horror
Heaven Dust 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 21k–35k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$88k–$236k after Steam's cut $159k–$363k before the cut
$14.99
858 reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesHorror
Matt's Project Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 521–846
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before the cut
$9.99
21 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessStrategy
Shadows of Duat
2023
Est. copies
≈ 843–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before the cut
$14.99
34 reviews
Positive
ZombiesGore

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