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How big is Darwin Project?

Estimated owners
≈ 458k–744k
from 18k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Darwin Project out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Darwin Project's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–9.4M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Darwin Project

The middle of these games

≈ 4.3M–9.4M copies

≈ $77.7M–$133.9M after Steam's cut

from ~170k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 33k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 115 to 76k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Battle Royale (5 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS. The breakout hits carry Shooter + FPS + Battle Royale; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.4M–43.0M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
302k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
Stumble Guys
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
138k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Z1 Battle Royale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 6.2M–10.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Mixed
SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.2M after Steam's cut $159.7M–$363.4M before the cut
$39.99
277k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldExtraction Shooter
MORDHAU
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.9M–$72.3M after Steam's cut $48.9M–$111.2M before the cut
$29.99
113k reviews
Mostly Positive
MedievalMultiplayer

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.