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How many copies did Thimbleweed Park™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 145k–236k
$797k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Thimbleweed Park™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thimbleweed Park™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–6.7M
best case 128.5M (Terraria)
Games like Thimbleweed Park™

The middle of these games

≈ 5.6M–6.7M copies

≈ $39.0M–$50.8M after Steam's cut

from ~172k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Automobile Sim (2 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 97.9M–159.1M copies, ≈ $269.0M–$723.1M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 43k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 20k to 58k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Automobile Sim (2 of 8) and Crafting (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 5M–10M
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too small to compare
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MemesPixel Graphics
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Card BattlerCard Game
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AdventureAction Roguelike
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≈ 97.9M–159.1M
9.0x vs typical
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unreleased
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Free
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