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How many copies did Little Misfortune sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 406k–660k
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.2M before the cut
from 14k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Little Misfortune out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Little Misfortune's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–5.3M
best case 21.7M (Undertale)
Games like Little Misfortune

The middle of these games

≈ 4.4M–5.3M copies

≈ $40.6M–$51.0M after Steam's cut

from ~126k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.5M–26.8M copies, ≈ $45.3M–$121.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 46k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 14k to 68k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Horror (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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2023
Est. copies
≈ 6.8M–11.1M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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Undertale
2015
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
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≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.1M before the cut
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2017
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≈ 2.6M–4.2M
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≈ 3.4M–5.5M
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Post-apocalypticFPS

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