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How many copies did Untitled Goose Game sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 623k–1.0M
$3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.2M before the cut
from 25k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Untitled Goose Game out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Untitled Goose Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 474k–837k
best case 2.3M (NBA 2K20)
Games like Untitled Goose Game

The middle of these games

≈ 474k–837k copies

≈ $4.0M–$6.7M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: NBA 2K20 at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Villain Protagonist (5 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Basketball + Sports. The breakout hits carry Basketball + Sports + Loot; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 1997 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NBA 2K20
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Mixed
BasketballSports
Garfield Kart - Furious Racing
2019
Est. copies
≈ 434k–706k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before the cut
$14.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicRacing
POSTAL
1997
Est. copies
≈ 911k–1.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
14k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorVillain Protagonist
LEGO® City Undercover
2017
Est. copies
≈ 394k–640k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$9.0M before the cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
LEGOOpen World
Destroy All Humans!
2020
Est. copies
≈ 285k–463k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before the cut
$29.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
ActionAdventure
Dungeons 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 644k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.0M before the cut
$29.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyVillain Protagonist
Evil Genius 2: World Domination
2021
Est. copies
≈ 328k–533k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$14.9M before the cut
$39.99
13k reviews
Mixed
StrategyBase-Building
Grimm
2014
Est. copies
≈ 632k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndieFree to Play

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