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How many copies did Timothy vs the Aliens sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 422–685
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before the cut
from 17 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Timothy vs the Aliens out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Timothy vs the Aliens's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.6M–56.8M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Timothy vs the Aliens

The middle of these games

≈ 6.6M–56.8M copies

≈ $55.4M–$211.9M after Steam's cut

from ~315k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (7 of 8) and Crime (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
8.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 101.3M–164.6M
6.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.1M reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.6M–$74.1M after Steam's cut $50.1M–$114.0M before the cut
$19.99
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Mafia: Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.3M before the cut
$39.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldCrime
Just Cause™ 3
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.2M–10.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$34.3M–$92.2M after Steam's cut $62.4M–$141.9M before the cut
$19.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Red Dead Redemption 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 26.2M–42.6M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$432.5M–$1162.8M after Steam's cut $786.3M–$1788.9M before the cut
$59.99
910k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldStory Rich

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