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How many copies did Hogwarts Legacy sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
$152.1M–$408.9M after Steam's cut $276.5M–$629.1M before the cut
from 372k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Hogwarts Legacy out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hogwarts Legacy's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–22.0M
best case 56.7M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition)
Games like Hogwarts Legacy

The middle of these games

≈ 4.4M–22.0M copies

≈ $49.7M–$232.0M after Steam's cut

from ~116k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition at ≈ 43.2M–70.2M copies, ≈ $593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Fantasy (8 of 8) and Open World (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.8M–$37.1M after Steam's cut $25.1M–$57.1M before the cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.6M–25.4M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$172.0M–$462.5M after Steam's cut $312.8M–$711.6M before the cut
$39.99
376k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before the cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition Deluxe (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.4M–$49.5M after Steam's cut $33.5M–$76.1M before the cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before the cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Dragon's Dogma 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.7M–$85.1M after Steam's cut $57.6M–$131.0M before the cut
$39.99
116k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldRPG
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.2M–70.2M
7.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut
$49.99
885k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.1M–$148.2M after Steam's cut $100.2M–$228.0M before the cut
$49.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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