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How big is Tails Noir: Prologue?

Estimated owners
≈ 118k–192k
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Tails Noir: Prologue out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tails Noir: Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17.2M–37.7M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Tails Noir: Prologue

The middle of these games

≈ 17.2M–37.7M copies

≈ $85.0M–$95.0M after Steam's cut

from ~565k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Co-op (4 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + Battle Royale + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.5M–$138.4M after Steam's cut $93.6M–$213.0M before the cut
$19.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before the cut
$13.99
394k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Brawlhalla
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
411k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.7M–43.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut $200.2M–$455.4M before the cut
$14.99
776k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 35.7M–58.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.0M–$131.7M after Steam's cut $89.1M–$202.7M before the cut
$4.99
638k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.