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How many copies did Garden Story sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 43k–70k
$235k–$633k after Steam's cut $428k–$973k before the cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Garden Story out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Garden Story's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–5.9M
best case 39.3M (Black Myth: Wukong)
Games like Garden Story

The middle of these games

≈ 1.5M–5.9M copies

≈ $23.5M–$113.9M after Steam's cut

from ~61k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Black Myth: Wukong at ≈ 30.0M–48.7M copies, ≈ $494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 33k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 5k to 836k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Action RPG (6 of 8) and Fantasy (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mythology + Action RPG, priced around $60.
The era
5 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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20x vs typical
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