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wishvane

How many copies did Blair Witch sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 233k–379k
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before the cut
from 8k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Blair Witch out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blair Witch's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.7M–28.1M
best case 40.4M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Blair Witch

The middle of these games

≈ 11.7M–28.1M copies

≈ $77.9M–$90.4M after Steam's cut

from ~417k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is First-Person (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 30.8M–50.0M copies, ≈ $42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on First-Person (4 of 8) and Anime (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

VRChat
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≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.5M after Steam's cut $63.2M–$143.9M before the cut
$9.99
511k reviews
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Online Co-OpHorror
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before the cut
$13.99
394k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$301.6M–$810.8M after Steam's cut $548.3M–$1247.4M before the cut
$59.99
439k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
227k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
234k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 35.7M–58.0M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.0M–$131.7M after Steam's cut $89.1M–$202.7M before the cut
$4.99
638k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic

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