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How many copies did Tales of the Black Forest sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 445k–724k
$489k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $889k–$2.0M before the cut
from 15k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Tales of the Black Forest out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tales of the Black Forest's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 287k–1.2M
best case 2.9M (OMORI)
Games like Tales of the Black Forest

The middle of these games

≈ 287k–1.2M copies

≈ $1.3M–$7.3M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: OMORI at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $12.0M–$32.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Story Rich (6 of 8) and RPGMaker (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Story Rich, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Coffin of Andy and Leyley
2023
Est. copies
≈ 971k–1.6M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.2M before the cut
$11.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PsychologicalDark Comedy
A Bird Story
2014
Est. copies
≈ 605k–984k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$664k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before the cut
$3.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndieStory Rich
Mad Father
2016
Est. copies
≈ 280k–455k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$769k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before the cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGMakerHorror
Angels of Death
2016
Est. copies
≈ 223k–363k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$614k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before the cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
OMORI
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.8M before the cut
$19.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rakuen
2017
Est. copies
≈ 204k–331k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$841k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before the cut
$14.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichEmotional
LISA: The Painful
2014
Est. copies
≈ 849k–1.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.3M before the cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dark HumorRPG
Confess My Love
2017
Est. copies
≈ 168k–273k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAnime

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