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How many copies did PAYDAY 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
$13.4M–$35.9M after Steam's cut $24.3M–$55.2M before the cut
from 65k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left PAYDAY 3 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PAYDAY 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 185k–1.2M
best case 55.9M (PAYDAY 2)
Games like PAYDAY 3

The middle of these games

≈ 185k–1.2M copies

≈ $1.3M–$10.2M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.6M–69.2M copies, ≈ $117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Co-op (6 of 8) and Crime (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Looter Shooter + FPS + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2025, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kane and Lynch: Dead Men™
2007
Est. copies
≈ 217k–353k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Mixed
ActionCrime
Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine
2013
Est. copies
≈ 539k–875k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.2M before the cut
$14.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Thief Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.6M–$17.8M after Steam's cut $12.0M–$27.4M before the cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
Crime Simulator: Playgrounds
2024
Est. copies
≈ 54k–87k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$29k–$79k after Steam's cut $53k–$121k before the cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionMultiplayer
Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days
2010
Est. copies
≈ 616k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before the cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Mixed
ActionCo-op
PAYDAY™ The Heist
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.4M before the cut
$9.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
79x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
The Break-In
2025
Est. copies
≈ 65k–105k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$356k–$957k after Steam's cut $647k–$1.5M before the cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
VRMultiplayer

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