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How many copies did Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 869k–1.4M
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.6M–$44.5M before the cut
from 35k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 995k–4.8M
best case 26.4M (The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim)
Games like Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon

The middle of these games

≈ 995k–4.8M copies

≈ $9.7M–$42.5M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim at ≈ 20.1M–32.6M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Fantasy (6 of 8) and Open World (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Fantasy, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.6M–$23.2M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.7M before the cut
$29.99
21k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionOnline Co-Op
Warhammer: Vermintide 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.3M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.9M–$99.3M after Steam's cut $67.2M–$152.8M before the cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opDark Fantasy
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
8.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before the cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.8M–$37.1M after Steam's cut $25.1M–$57.1M before the cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition Deluxe (2009)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.4M–$49.5M after Steam's cut $33.5M–$76.1M before the cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGOpen World
Gothic® 3
2009
Est. copies
≈ 782k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.6M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.8M before the cut
$19.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Risen
2009
Est. copies
≈ 684k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before the cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
ELEX
2017
Est. copies
≈ 674k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.1M–$23.0M before the cut
$29.99
20k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGOpen World

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