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wishvane

How many copies did ELEX sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 674k–1.1M
$5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.1M–$23.0M before the cut
from 20k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left ELEX out and predicted the genre from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including ELEX's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–13.7M
best case 27.4M (Fallout 4)
Games like ELEX

The middle of these games

≈ 4.3M–13.7M copies

≈ $38.1M–$98.6M after Steam's cut

from ~128k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 20.9M–34.0M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (7 of 7) and Post-apocalyptic (7 of 7).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2024, and 1 of your 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$56.2M–$151.0M after Steam's cut $102.1M–$232.3M before the cut
$59.99
137k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldFPS
Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$19.5M–$52.4M after Steam's cut $35.4M–$80.6M before the cut
$19.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Mad Max
2015
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.2M–$65.1M after Steam's cut $44.0M–$100.1M before the cut
$19.99
90k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldVehicular Combat
Fallout: New Vegas
2010
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$45.3M–$121.9M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.6M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAdventure
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl
2007
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.7M–$44.9M after Steam's cut $30.4M–$69.1M before the cut
$19.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
AtmosphericPost-apocalyptic

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.