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How many copies did Vermillion - VR Painting sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–26k
$89k–$240k after Steam's cut $163k–$370k before the cut
from 656 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Vermillion - VR Painting out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Vermillion - VR Painting's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.4M–4.2M
best case 12.1M (VRChat)
Games like Vermillion - VR Painting

The middle of these games

≈ 2.4M–4.2M copies

≈ $24.2M–$41.4M after Steam's cut

from ~74k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: VRChat at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Sandbox (6 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Anime. The breakout hits carry Anime + Memes + Free to Play; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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RacingPhysics

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