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How many copies did Mars Base sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before the cut
from 45 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Mars Base out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mars Base's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–2.0M
best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)
Games like Mars Base

The middle of these games

≈ 1.7M–2.0M copies

≈ $15.4M–$20.5M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Crafting (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1k to 43k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Crafting (4 of 8) and Building (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Fishing + Casual + Relaxing; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
Only 2 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut $40.0M–$91.0M before the cut
$19.99
161k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 926k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.6M–$20.5M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.6M before the cut
$29.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
My Time at Portia
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.3M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.5M before the cut
$29.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Life SimRPG
SnowRunner
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.4M–$30.6M after Steam's cut $20.7M–$47.1M before the cut
$29.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationAutomobile Sim
Forager
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.7M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.8M before the cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Core Keeper
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.3M before the cut
$19.99
66k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
The Planet Crafter
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.2M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before the cut
$23.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftBase-Building
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.9M–$29.3M after Steam's cut $19.8M–$45.0M before the cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
EmotionalStory Rich

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.