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How many copies did Agarta sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 13k–21k
$11k–$29k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before the cut
from 523 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Agarta out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Agarta's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 48k–85k
best case 169k (Until Dawn™)
Games like Agarta

The middle of these games

≈ 48k–85k copies

≈ $252k–$659k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

6 of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Choices Matter (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Until Dawn™ at ≈ 129k–210k copies, ≈ $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 587 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 49 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Choices Matter (4 of 8) and Choose Your Own Adventure (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Choices Matter, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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