How much revenue did Until Dawn™ make?

$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Until Dawn™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Until Dawn™ sell?

129k to 210k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 129k–210k; $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before the cut; from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Until Dawn™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Until Dawn™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.5M

best case 7.1M (Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition)

Games like Until Dawn™

The middle of these games

≈ 2.2M–3.5M copies

≈ $16.3M–$28.9M after Steam's cut

from ~65k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition at ≈ 5.4M–8.8M copies, ≈ $89.6M–$240.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 332 to 72k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Story Rich (5 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Co-op, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Open World + Co-op + Parkour; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
SteamVR unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	86k reviews Very Positive	VRSoftware
OneShot 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.6M before the cut	$9.99	65k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichPixel Graphics
BioShock™ Remastered 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.8M–$39.8M after Steam's cut $26.9M–$61.3M before the cut	$19.99	65k reviews Very Positive	FPS Story Rich
The Walking Dead 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $20.9M–$56.2M after Steam's cut $38.0M–$86.5M before the cut	$14.99	80k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesStory Rich
Senren＊Banka 2020	Est. copies ≈ 915k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $8.8M–$23.7M after Steam's cut $16.0M–$36.4M before the cut	$34.99	37k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelNSFW
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $16.0M–$42.9M after Steam's cut $29.0M–$66.0M before the cut	$49.99	47k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $89.6M–$240.8M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.5M before the cut	$59.99	219k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldCo-op
The Walking Dead: Season Two 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.8M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.6M before the cut	$14.99	34k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesAdventure