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How big is Poppy Playtime?

Estimated owners
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
from 142k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Poppy Playtime out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Poppy Playtime's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15.6M–29.2M
best case 40.4M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Poppy Playtime

The middle of these games

≈ 15.6M–29.2M copies

≈ $79.7M–$154.0M after Steam's cut

from ~387k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Sandbox (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 30.8M–50.0M copies, ≈ $42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Sandbox (3 of 8) and Co-op (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 35.7M–58.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.0M–$131.7M after Steam's cut $89.1M–$202.7M before the cut
$4.99
638k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before the cut
$13.99
394k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Path of Exile
2013
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
250k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayDark Fantasy
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.5M–18.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.0M–$255.4M after Steam's cut $172.7M–$393.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.1M–14.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.7M–$103.9M before the cut
$9.99
317k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.4M–$315.8M after Steam's cut $213.5M–$485.8M before the cut
$29.99
292k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.