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How many copies did SIMULACRA 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$25k–$67k after Steam's cut $45k–$103k before the cut
from 365 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left SIMULACRA 3 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SIMULACRA 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 24k–34k
best case 345k (No Case Should Remain Unsolved)
Games like SIMULACRA 3

The middle of these games

≈ 24k–34k copies

≈ $53k–$124k after Steam's cut

from ~767 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

4 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: No Case Should Remain Unsolved at ≈ 263k–427k copies, ≈ $505k–$1.4M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 508 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 296 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Puzzle (8 of 8) and Immersive Sim (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Investigation + Puzzle, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Investigation + Conspiracy + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
5 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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FMVDating Sim

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