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How many copies did Analogue: A Hate Story sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 145k–236k
$399k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $725k–$1.6M before the cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Analogue: A Hate Story out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Analogue: A Hate Story's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 426k–868k
best case 1.2M (Senren*Banka)
Games like Analogue: A Hate Story

The middle of these games

≈ 426k–868k copies

≈ $2.6M–$8.7M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Senren*Banka at ≈ 915k–1.5M copies, ≈ $8.8M–$23.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (8 of 8) and Visual Novel (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + NSFW, priced around $35.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–869k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before the cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
AI: The Somnium Files
2019
Est. copies
≈ 270k–439k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before the cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelAnime
ATRI -My Dear Moments-
2020
Est. copies
≈ 577k–937k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.8M before the cut
$20.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
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STEINS;GATE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.7M–$38.1M before the cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Senren*Banka
2020
Est. copies
≈ 915k–1.5M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.8M–$23.7M after Steam's cut $16.0M–$36.4M before the cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
STEINS;GATE 0
2018
Est. copies
≈ 255k–414k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.1M before the cut
$34.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NEKOPARA Vol. 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 414k–672k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before the cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiSexual Content
Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For-
2016
Est. copies
≈ 343k–557k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$942k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before the cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime

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