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How many copies did Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
$19.5M–$52.4M after Steam's cut $35.4M–$80.6M before the cut
from 56k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.1M–28.5M
best case 31.7M (Dying Light)
Games like Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition

The middle of these games

≈ 7.1M–28.5M copies

≈ $136.0M–$266.1M after Steam's cut

from ~331k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Dying Light at ≈ 24.1M–39.2M copies, ≈ $165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 72k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 25k to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Survival Horror, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition
2022
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$89.6M–$240.8M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.5M before the cut
$59.99
219k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldCo-op
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAdventure
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.2M–49.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$207.3M–$557.3M after Steam's cut $376.9M–$857.4M before the cut
$24.99
477k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Fallout: New Vegas
2010
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$45.3M–$121.9M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.6M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
NieR:Automata™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.9M–$155.7M after Steam's cut $105.3M–$239.5M before the cut
$39.99
153k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.1M–39.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut $301.5M–$685.8M before the cut
$24.99
494k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror

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