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How many copies did Thronefall sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 583k–947k
$2.1M–$5.6M after Steam's cut $3.8M–$8.6M before the cut
from 24k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Thronefall out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thronefall's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 849k–1.6M
best case 7.6M (Factorio)
Games like Thronefall

The middle of these games

≈ 849k–1.6M copies

≈ $5.1M–$10.5M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.8M–9.4M copies, ≈ $55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 4k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Base-Building (4 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Automation + Multiplayer + Resource Management; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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11x vs typical
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