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wishvane

How many copies did Transistor sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
$9.6M–$25.9M after Steam's cut $17.5M–$39.8M before the cut
from 31k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Transistor out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Transistor's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.8M–9.3M
best case 56.5M (Stardew Valley)
Games like Transistor

The middle of these games

≈ 5.8M–9.3M copies

≈ $35.2M–$81.3M after Steam's cut

from ~157k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Female Protagonist (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.0M–69.9M copies, ≈ $177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Female Protagonist (3 of 8) and Anime (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.0M–69.9M
6.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut $322.5M–$733.6M before the cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Life is Strange - Episode 1
2015
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–13.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
176k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter
Muse Dash
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before the cut
$2.99
122k reviews
Very Positive
MusicRhythm
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.7M after Steam's cut $53.9M–$122.6M before the cut
$19.99
157k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.5M–$65.8M after Steam's cut $44.5M–$101.2M before the cut
$19.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.4M–$235.0M after Steam's cut $158.9M–$361.6M before the cut
$44.99
205k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.