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How many copies did The Novelist sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 66k–107k
$90k–$242k after Steam's cut $164k–$372k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Novelist out and predicted the genre from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including The Novelist's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–7.2M
best case 27.8M (Baldur's Gate 3)
Games like The Novelist

The middle of these games

≈ 1.0M–7.2M copies

≈ $15.5M–$55.4M after Steam's cut

from ~31k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.2M–34.4M copies, ≈ $349.3M–$939.1M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Choices Matter (3 of 5) and Story Rich (3 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Vampyr
2018
Est. copies
≈ 764k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.6M after Steam's cut $15.3M–$34.8M before the cut
$39.99
25k reviews
Mostly Positive
VampireRPG
Quantum Break
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.1M–$38.0M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.5M before the cut
$39.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich
Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.2M–34.4M
28x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$349.3M–$939.1M after Steam's cut $635.1M–$1444.8M before the cut
$59.99
854k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.3M before the cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 458k–745k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.6M before the cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction

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