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How many copies did Hyper Light Drifter sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 796k–1.3M
$4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut $8.0M–$18.1M before the cut
from 19k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Hyper Light Drifter out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hyper Light Drifter's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.5M–16.2M
best case 56.5M (Stardew Valley)
Games like Hyper Light Drifter

The middle of these games

≈ 6.5M–16.2M copies

≈ $40.4M–$147.3M after Steam's cut

from ~165k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Action Roguelike (2 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.0M–69.9M copies, ≈ $177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Action Roguelike (2 of 8) and Rogue-like (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$71.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut $130.6M–$297.1M before the cut
$34.99
246k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
OMORI
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.8M before the cut
$19.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Hotline Miami
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.6M after Steam's cut $40.3M–$91.7M before the cut
$9.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackViolent
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.2M–$102.8M after Steam's cut $69.5M–$158.2M before the cut
$24.99
183k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.2M–41.0M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$104.0M–$279.6M after Steam's cut $189.1M–$430.1M before the cut
$14.99
450k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Starbound
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.1M–$56.8M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.4M before the cut
$14.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.0M–69.9M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut $322.5M–$733.6M before the cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.5M–$65.8M after Steam's cut $44.5M–$101.2M before the cut
$19.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.