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How many copies did Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
$16.1M–$43.3M after Steam's cut $29.2M–$66.5M before the cut
from 80k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–6.9M
best case 33.1M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number

The middle of these games

≈ 2.5M–6.9M copies

≈ $13.0M–$32.7M after Steam's cut

from ~67k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Gore (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.2M–41.0M copies, ≈ $104.0M–$279.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Gore (3 of 8) and Violent (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

CARRION
2020
Est. copies
≈ 882k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.8M–$13.0M after Steam's cut $8.8M–$20.1M before the cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
Villain ProtagonistPixel Graphics
Hotline Miami
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.6M after Steam's cut $40.3M–$91.7M before the cut
$9.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackViolent
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before the cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
Katana ZERO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.2M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.3M before the cut
$14.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction
Super Meat Boy
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.2M–$27.4M after Steam's cut $18.5M–$42.1M before the cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Blasphemous
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.7M before the cut
$24.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.2M–41.0M
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$104.0M–$279.6M after Steam's cut $189.1M–$430.1M before the cut
$14.99
450k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–502k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before the cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS

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