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How many copies did One Chance sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 620–1k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before the cut
from 25 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left One Chance out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including One Chance's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–5k
best case 559k (Overlord™)
Games like One Chance

The middle of these games

≈ 2k–5k copies

≈ $5k–$24k after Steam's cut

from ~136 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

2 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Overlord™ at ≈ 426k–692k copies, ≈ $584k–$1.6M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 60 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 11 to 97.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Action-Adventure (5 of 8) and RTS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Historical + Sandbox, priced around $6. The breakout hits carry Historical + Indie + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2024, and 3 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Han Xiongnu Wars
2017
Est. copies
≈ 142k–230k
30x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$272k–$732k after Steam's cut $495k–$1.1M before the cut
$6.99
4k reviews
Mixed
ActionStrategy
Overlord™
2007
Est. copies
≈ 426k–692k
50x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$584k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before the cut
$4.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Villain ProtagonistHack and Slash
Zombie Party 丧尸派对
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before the cut
$5.99
154 reviews
Mostly Positive
Pixel GraphicsZombies
Conquest
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$624–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before the cut
$1.99
46 reviews
Mixed
RPGVR
Penkura
2018
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$23k–$63k after Steam's cut $43k–$97k before the cut
$13.99
200 reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessOpen World Survival Craft
Sunstone War
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$8k before the cut
$4.99
54 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureTower Defense
XiuzhenWorld2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3k–6k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$12k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before the cut
$12.99
141 reviews
Mixed
RPGIdler
Alchemist Adventure
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$36k after Steam's cut $24k–$55k before the cut
$14.99
130 reviews
Mostly Positive
Action-AdventureMedieval

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