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How many copies did The Beginner's Guide sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$13.0M before the cut
from 23k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Beginner's Guide out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Beginner's Guide's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 917k–2.2M
best case 2.4M (What Remains of Edith Finch)
Games like The Beginner's Guide

The middle of these games

≈ 917k–2.2M copies

≈ $8.3M–$15.4M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: What Remains of Edith Finch at ≈ 1.8M–2.9M copies, ≈ $10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on First-Person (7 of 8) and Walking Simulator (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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AdventureFirst-Person
Gone Home
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Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
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The Stanley Parable
2013
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≈ 2.9M–4.7M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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ComedyNarration
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≈ 893k–1.5M
1.5x vs typical
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Multiple EndingsComedy
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
2.2x vs typical
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Story RichAtmospheric
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≈ 421k–685k
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$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before the cut
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LovecraftianHorror
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SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$19.99
12k reviews
Mixed

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